Here’s where the stock market is headed in 2026, according to Wall Street’s top strategists
Stocks are in for another double-digit gain in 2026, according to Wall Street’s top strategists. Wall Street is confident the bull market can continue for another year, albeit not as strong as this one has been, according to the 2026 CNBC Market Strategist Survey . On average, strategists expect the S & P 500 can end next year at 7,629, a level representing 11.6% upside from current levels. The target is a bit higher on a median basis: 7,650, or a roughly 13% rise. Those expected gains are stronger than what strategists estimated coming into this year, though 2025 has blown away expectations. As the year draws to a close, the S & P 500 is on the precipice of netting a “three-peat,” having rallied 24% in 2023, and 23% in 2024. As of Friday’s close, the S & P 500 is up more than 15% in 2025, having risen to all-time highs in defiance of tariff concerns and fears of an AI bubble. Just last week, the index closed above 6,900 for the first time. “After 3 years > 20% yearly gains, bull market still alive,” Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee wrote in a note earlier this month. “The significant ‘Wall of Worry’ is a tailwind for bull market.” There’s no shortage of challenges facing the market in the year ahead, but many strategists expect equities will continue to benefit from a favorable backdrop, including a veritable “trifecta” of positive forces that could help earnings catch up to multiples. In 2026, the Federal Reserve is expected to ease monetary policy even further. The Trump administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to energize an economy that has recently started to show weakness, and businesses could be leaving tariff concerns in the rearview mirror. There’s also artificial intelligence. Wall Street expects the gains from AI will continue to roll through the market in the coming years, as earnings growth starts to catch up to valuations for the megacaps. On top of that, investors expect the benefits will broaden out from the tech leaders to the real economy. To be sure, some worry any uphill climb next year will be a tougher one. 2026 is a midterm election year, historically a volatile year for markets. The labor market is under the microscope for any weakness. AI spend and earnings growth will have to justify high valuations. “Naturally, investors wonder if 2026 will see a fourth year of double-digit gains,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, wrote in his official outlook. “Even though we think the bull will remain intact by year-end, we project increased volatility along with a lower-than-average full-year percentage increase.” Here are the current 2026 targets from top strategists. (Pro subscribers can track the strategist survey throughout the year here as the forecasters update their outlooks.) There are a number of positive forces supporting the bull case for stocks. In addition to an encouraging fiscal and monetary backdrop, 2026 is the year when the U.S. is expected to post a more than 2% rise in real GDP, helped by an expansion in labor and strong productivity gains thank to AI adoption. Early AI adoption could lead to a 0.4% boost in earnings growth in 2026, and a 1.5% support in 2027, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. That supports a bevy of confident forecasts on the survey. The most optimistic comes from Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus, who expects the S & P 500 can climb to 8,100 in 2026, and said stocks remain his favorite asset class. Other outlooks are similarly bright. Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha expects the S & P 500 can reach 8,000 next year. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said the broader index can jump to 7,800 because of AI investment. Jobs market a concern Others worry investors are not taking the effect AI will have on the economy seriously enough. Bank of America Securities’ Savita Subramanian, whose 7,100 year-end target is the most bearish in the survey, said she’s concerned the labor market will weaken further in 2026. She pointed out that middle income professional services that has driven consumption growth will likely crumble next year, affecting a wider range of consumers than the lower-income cohort that has borne the brunt of economic weakness. “I think it’s going to be a year where we see some significant multiple compression,” Subramanian told CNBC’s ” Squawk Box ” on Monday. As a result, the strategist upgraded consumer staples to overweight from underweight. She downgraded consumer discretionary to market weight from underweight. A stock picker’s market To be sure, Subramanian expects a wide range of outcomes next year. Though she expects the S & P 500 will end the year at 7,100, she also expects it could hit 8,000 at some point. Her bear case for the broad market index is at 5,500, or a nearly 20% selloff. 8,500 is her bull case, more than 25% above current levels. As a matter of fact, what is clear from the survey is that strategists expect investors will have to choose their spots more carefully than in prior years. Higher-than-normal volatility could mean a bias toward quality, including tech. Middling returns in the aggregate index could mean greater discernment is required on which stocks will turn out to be winners, not losers, even among the highest-flying AI names. “As we approach the new year, we advise investors to remain invested but vigilant,” CFRA’s Stovall wrote. — CNBC’s Fred Imbert contributed to this report.
Source – CNBC
