Tourism Authority of Thailand expects drop in New Year revenue

Border conflict, flood dent festive market

Tourism receipts during the New Year holiday are expected to plunge by 2-9% year-on-year due to the border conflict and flooding in the South, while outbound travel remains strong, supported by the strength of the local currency.

Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the agency forecasts tourism receipts of 70-76.5 billion baht for the New Year holiday, down 2-9% from last year.

The drop is largely driven by foreign markets, particularly a slowdown in Malaysian trips to Hat Yai in Songkhla and other southern provinces affected by severe flooding.

Border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia in early December also dampened travel confidence for the year-end period, especially among sensitive markets such as China, Hong Kong and Japan.

Between Dec 20 and Jan 1, foreign arrivals are estimated at 1.4-1.5 million, down 6-12% year-on-year, with revenue dipping 4-15% to 51.6-58 billion baht, said Ms Thapanee.

Healthy bookings from middle- and long-haul visitors helped cushion the decline, as these markets recorded a 6% increase in seat reservations during this period, while Bangkok gained recognition in several surveys as a top winter destination.

For example, Tripadvisor’s Winter Travel Index Report 2025 ranked Bangkok among the “Popular Destinations Globally for International Travelers”, alongside London, Cancun and Paris.

Thailand added more than 10 new international routes for the holiday season, including flights from China, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and Vietnam, as well as charter services from Europe to Bangkok, Chon Buri, Phuket, Krabi and Chiang Rai.

She said domestic trips and revenue are expected to grow 7% year-on-year to 4.96 million trips and 18.5 billion baht between Dec 31 and Jan 4.

The growth is driven by the five-day holiday, cool weather and nationwide celebrations, said Ms Thapanee.

The nine countdown events organised by the TAT are projected to generate 4.83 billion baht, an 8% increase year-on-year, from 859,300 local trips.

Tassanee Kiatkamchornchai, vice-president of the Thai Travel Agents Association, said outbound tourism is growing for the New Year holiday.

China remains the top destination for Thai tourists, thanks to visa-free schemes and affordable airfares on many new routes that attract repeat visitors.

Japan is the No.2 destination, attracting tourists with a weak yen, although airfares remain expensive, she said.

The strong baht has continued to drive outbound travel throughout this year.

While middle-income earners may be concerned about economic conditions, they remain eager to travel abroad once or twice a year, taking advantage of more affordable prices, said Ms Tassanee.

During the first half, outbound travel grew nearly 20% year-on-year, before slowing in the second half due to declining confidence stemming from border skirmishes.

This year the outbound market is expected to grow by 10-15% from 2024, which exceeded the level in 2019, she said.