This bargain fintech stock is stuck in a five-year rut. A turnaround is coming
Key Points: Global Payments, a crucial intermediary between retailers and banks, trades well below competitors’ and its own historical multiples. The company hopes to turn things around by gaining a dominant share of the merchant acquisition market through the purchase of Worldpay and the introduction of a point-of-sale system. Global Payments could see upside from accelerating cash flow, substantial shareholder returns —and if that doesn’t work — a leveraged buyout is a possibility. Global Payments’ stock has been battered for so long, it might be easy for investors to overlook its tempting valuation and a burgeoning comeback story. A major restructuring in early 2025 sharpened Global Payments’ strategic focus . It has trimmed costs and shed assets. With the help of activist investor Elliott Management, the company is integrating its acquisition of Worldpay. Cash flow is expected to accelerate, providing funds for share repurchases and strengthening its balance sheet. These steps could boost its stock price, or it could catch the attention of private equity firms that have been eyeing the payments space for deals. Shares have hovered near multiyear lows for the past nine months following a more than 65% decline over the past five years. That poor performance has brought the forward earnings multiple down to just 4.9 times, well below its five-year average of roughly 15 times and a peak of 25 times. It also trades at a substantial discount to key competitors such as Fiserv , Fidelity National Information Services , PayPal , Shift4 Payments and Toast . Long payments legacy Based in Atlanta, Global Payments began as a business unit of National Data Corp. Initially, the company focused on processing transactions for banks, but over time, it came to provide a whole suite of payment products. Spun off from NDC in 2001, Global Payments only shifted to become a pure-play merchant acquirer recently after divesting its issuer solutions business. As a merchant acquirer, it acts as the intermediary between merchants and banks, helping businesses accept credit card payments, authorizing transactions, settling funds into merchants’ bank accounts, and managing risks such as fraud and chargebacks. After it acquired Worldpay in January, it became the largest player in this business in the country. The Worldpay deal also bolstered Global Payments presence in Europe and strengthened some of its offerings such as e-commerce capabilities. The newly streamlined company serves more than 6 million locations across more than 175 countries, processing roughly 94 billion transactions and about $4 trillion in payment volume. Despite its scale, Global Payments was caught off guard as more retail business went online and it ceded market share to technology-focused entrants such as Adyen , Stripe, and Square . These companies rapidly innovated as Global Payments struggled to maintain its strategic focus, contributing to below-market-rate net revenue growth of 2% in 2025 compared with 6% in the previous year. Turnaround story But last year, Global Payments consolidated its point-of-sale products into an all-in-one platform called Genius, simplifying its business as it looks to build stronger brand recognition and loyalty. Citigroup analysts expect Genius will result in Global Payments having a more recognizable brand, which will make it easier to pitch new clients or sell additional services to existing ones. That in turn could create a “snowballing of exposure,” where the more terminals it has in use, the more merchants will associate the service with business success, the analysts said. Global Payments is also leaning into artificial intelligence. Speaking at the Wolfe FinTech Forum on March 10 in New York City, CEO Cameron Bready said Global Payments has “huge opportunities to deploy AI to drive efficiency in our business.” He cited areas such as software development, developer productivity, product lead times and velocity, as well as settlement account reconciliations. Some analysts worry that Global Payments could remain tied to brick-and-mortar spending and miss the emerging shift toward agentic commerce, where autonomous AI agents compare and purchase goods and services on behalf of consumers. However, the company says it is actively engaged in the transition. “We are at the forefront of everything that’s happening from an agentic commerce standpoint,” Bready said this month. “We’ve been a part of every major protocol that’s been released and announced across Google, OpenAI, et cetera.” Global Payments’ stock price has yet to reflect this new reality even after a 17% pop following the release of a better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings report on Feb. 18. The shares gave up that gain in subsequent days as investors remain concerned about revenue growth and the risks associated with integrating the Worldpay business. GPN 5Y mountain Global Payments stock performance over the past five years. The company said it expects adjusted net revenue growth of about 5% in fiscal 2026 and adjusted EPS growth of 13% to 15%, both above analysts’ expectations. Executives described this outlook as “prudent” on the earnings conference call, suggesting there could be additional upside to the company’s forecasts. Adjusted operating margin is expected to expand by 150 basis points supported by higher operating leverage and integration gains from the Worldpay deal, which closed ahead of schedule and is on track to deliver $600 million in cost savings over the next three years. Post-acquisition, Global Payments’ scale has the benefit of lowering transaction costs and improving its ability to detect fraud. Its global reach, omnichannel capabilities, and secure end-to-end solutions create high switching costs for multinational clients, reinforcing its competitive moat. Global Payments has added 200 salespeople and plans to expand the team to 500 by midyear, aiming to reach a broader range of merchants through a multichannel distribution model that includes direct sales, partnerships, and integrated software. This sales expansion, combined with rising sales efficiency, is expected to drive revenue growth above 5% in the second half of 2026. Not all investors have avoided Global Payments. Activist hedge fund Elliott Management took a stake in the summer of 2025, buying into the dip that followed the announcement of the transformative Worldpay deal. By September 2025, Global Payments reached an agreement with Elliott to appoint three independent directors and create an integration committee. Elliott’s involvement brings operational expertise to the board, which will play a key role in guiding the Worldpay integration. After exiting Global Payments in 2023 at $108.61 per share, David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital repurchased shares at $77.85 in the fourth quarter of 2025. In a letter to investors, they noted that Global Payment’s consistent organic growth and its plan to return nearly $7 billion to shareholders — which is about one third of its market cap — over the next two years, should garner it recognition in the market and allow the stock to re-rate higher. Buybacks and debt reduction In February, Global Payments reiterated its intentions to buy back $7.5 billion of its own stock by the end of 2027. Its board has approved $2.5 billion for repurchase so far, with $550 million earmarked for immediate buybacks. Mizuho projects the plan could boost per-share annual earnings growth by 25% over the medium term. Global Payments’ strong free cash flow generation is helping it achieve this goal. It generated $3 billion in adjusted free cash flow in 2025 and expects more than $4 billion in 2027 and $5 billion by 2028. At this pace, the company anticipates generating enough cash within five to six years to cover its entire market capitalization. Also, the company is using its cash to reduce its net leverage ratio to an expected 3x by the end of 2027. A stronger financial position will also help support multiple expansion. An LBO target? Companies with such massive cash flow generation often attract the interest of leveraged buyout players. A recent Bank of America report noted that “deal activity has picked up recently, with private equity (PE) firms showing renewed interest in fintech and payments.” After its own stock slumped in late February, competitor Paypal found itself the target of rumored buyout interest from Stripe. Paypal is reported to be talking with banks to defend against a hostile takeover. Global Payments management seems open to the idea. “If we get to a point after a period of time of integrating the businesses, producing results, returning capital, if the public markets continue to not fairly value the business, I think we owe it to ourselves to look at all alternatives and evaluate all alternatives,” Bready said during its latest earnings conference call. With an enterprise value around $35 billion, some investors may view Global Payments as too large for a leveraged buyout. However, last year’s $55 billion acquisition of Electronic Arts demonstrates that there is still appetite for sizable deals. A buyout would likely require the backing of private equity firm GTCR, which acquired a 15% stake in Global Payments as part of the Worldpay transaction. Wall Street analysts are somewhat cautious on Global Payments stock, with about 42% of the 33 analysts covering it rating the stock a buy. About 52% are at a hold and two analysts have an underperform rating, according to LSEG. Analysts are still concerned about Global Payments’ ability to maintain a solid growth rate, fend off market share losses and integrate the Worldpay acquisition. For example, analysts at Wolfe said they are “watching for more concrete evidence of post-merger milestones.” But the average analyst price target of $101.32 is almost 44% above its current price, suggesting a view that Global Payments’ current valuation and massive expected cash flow generation gives the stock significant runway to a higher price. While the Global Payments turnaround story is just beginning and only a few savvy hedge funds are pounding the table on the name, now may be the time to get in before a flurry of analyst upgrades, or even a buyout, send shares higher. 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