Europe faces a ‘massive’ gas price shock from Iran war — and these three sectors will be hit hardest
As commodity prices spiked higher on Friday morning, a strategist warned that Europe was even more at risk of an energy shock than the U.S. Speaking with CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition”, Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum, noted that Europe now sources most of its natural gas from Qatar, one of the world’s biggest producers of LNG. As the war in the Middle East entered its seventh day, the Strait of Hormuz — a critical supply route which handles about one-fifth of global oil and gas — is now effectively closed to all shipping due to the continued threat of Iranian strikes. That’s bad news for Europe’s most energy-intensive industries, namely autos, chemicals and industrials, Klement said. “We are now facing the very risky situation where our natural gas storage is close to empty because of a cold winter, and being at the end of the winter time, and supplies from Qatar are being reduced,” he said. “That gives us a massive risk of a natural gas spike in Europe, which would obviously be very bad for energy-intensive industries like the chemicals business, the industrials and the automotive sector.” The Stoxx Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts Index slipped 0.7% on Friday, and has now fallen more 8% this week following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East last weekend. The Stoxx Europe 600 Chemicals benchmark is 6.3% lower on the week, having shed 0.9% on Friday. Industrials, meanwhile, have lost 4.7% since the conflict began. Energy prices have soared as the escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel and its allies and Iran has disrupted global supply chains . Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures, Europe’s benchmark gas contract, were trading at 52.33 euros per megawatt-hour on Friday. That’s lower than the 63.75 euros seen earlier in the week, though LNG remains on course for its biggest weekly rise since February 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. TTF stood at 31.96 euros per MWh on Feb. 27, the day before the conflict began. Meanwhile, Brent crude , the global oil benchmark, resumed its rally Friday morning, advancing 4.5% to reach $89.25 — a new 52-week high. In the U.S., prices of West Texas Intermediate were last seen 6.2% in early dealmaking, reaching $84.53. QatarEnergy earlier halted production of LNG after Iranian drones hit the state-owned producer’s Ras Laffan and Mesaieed Industrial City facilities, a move which knocked out about 19% of near-term global LNG supply. “Europe, unfortunately, is even more vulnerable to this energy shock than the U.S.,” Klement said. “It’s less because of oil, but because we get most of our natural gas these days from Qatar.”
Source – CNBC
