New stimulus likely to boost Thai stocks
Analysts are upbeat about the Thai stock market’s prospects, particularly those in the retail, food and beverage, and tourism sectors, as the new government prepares to revive the “Khon La Khrueng” (co-payment) scheme, a policy aimed at stimulating consumption and easing living costs.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced four urgent priorities for his new administration: economic recovery, national security, disaster response, and social stability. Among these priorities is the relaunch of the Khon La Khrueng programme, which is expected to directly support household purchasing power and drive short-term economic growth.
Daol Securities said the scheme would benefit sectors tied to consumer spending, including retail, food and beverage, tourism, construction, and ICT.
Utilities may see limited downside due to lower electricity tariffs, though Daol noted that falling LNG prices and the incoming energy minister’s industry experience should prevent excessive intervention.
Daol remains upbeat on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index, citing policies that reduce household expenses, boost disposable income, and accelerate public investment. Its top stock picks include CP Axtra (CPAXT), CP All (CPALL), Krung Thai Bank (KTB), Osotspa (OSP), Carabao Group (CBG), and Sino-Thai Engineering and Construction (STECON).
Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) described the scheme as a “quick-win stimulus”, capable of being implemented within the government’s first month using existing digital platforms Paotang and Thung Ngern.
The brokerage stressed that the initial Khon La Khrueng co-payment scheme was both cost-efficient and effective, requiring about 20–30 billion baht per round during the original phases while boosting GDP by 0.2%–0.4% when it was launched during the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration in 2020.
“By comparison, it demands significantly less funding than the 10,000-baht digital wallet handout while still channelling money to small businesses,” it said in a research note.
“The programme’s proven track record was supported by a simple structure and widespread familiarity, and a quick impact on grassroots spending made it highly successful in earlier phases.”
ASPS recommended stocks likely to outperform under the scheme, including retailers CPAXT, Central Retail (CRC), DOHOME, Berli Jucker (BJC), CPALL, food and beverage companies SAPPE, CBG, Taokaenoi (TKN), OSP, MK Restaurant (M), and agri-related plays Thai Vegetable Oil (TVO), Khon Kaen Sugar (KSL), Thai Union (TU), and Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF).
With a cost-effective stimulus on the way, such a policy could provide a meaningful boost to consumption in the fourth quarter and strengthen market sentiment in the near term, it added.
Krungsri Securities sees a new version of the scheme as positive for domestic consumption plays, such as stocks pertaining to retail, restaurants, beverages, and tourism.
Nonetheless, further conditions need to be clarified, which would define direct beneficiaries more clearly, the brokerage noted.
Source – Bangkok News
