Traders see gold hitting $3,800 an ounce

Declining confidence in US under Trump spurs rush to safe-haven assets

Gold prices are on track to hit $3,800 per ounce later this year amid mounting fears of a global economic slowdown, due partly to the unpredictable trade policies of US President Donald Trump, according  to local traders.

Spot gold extended sharp gains in Asian trading on Tuesday, soaring 1.8% to $3,373 an ounce by mid-afternoon, as investors exercised caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting starting later in the day. Thai selling prices were quoted at 52,300 baht per baht-weight (15.2 grammes), according to the Thai Gold Traders Association.

Pawan Nawawattanasub, chief executive of the local cold trader YLG Group, said declining confidence in US economic policy has weakened the dollar and strengthened Brics currencies, creating a favourable environment for safe-haven assets, notably gold.

Brics is an intergovernmental organisation that has expanded to comprise 10 countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Thailand became a partner nation this year.

“Trump’s erratic approach, especially regarding tariffs on China, has created global uncertainty. Even those close to him are backing away because his thinking is so unpredictable,” said Mrs Pawan.

“If these aggressive trade policies continue, gold will be the ultimate refuge — not only for central banks and institutional investors, but also for the public.”

Gold prices have surged since March, often with daily swings of up to $100 per ounce, an unprecedented level that benefits short-term investors who monitor political and economic shifts, according to YLG.

The trader predicts gold will hit $3,800 later this year in a base-case scenario if negotiations between the US and China stall. In a worst-case scenario where no trade agreement is reached, prices could surge even higher, said Mrs Pawan.

If the spot price breaks through $3,500, the next resistance level could move towards $3,800, she said.

Meanwhile, the growing influence of Brics members is pressuring the dollar’s dominance in international trade. The rising use of China’s yuan in global transactions could further destabilise the dollar and lift demand for gold. The euro is also strengthening under these conditions, said Mrs Pawan.

Goldman Sachs also issued a bullish outlook for gold, citing strong central bank demand and elevated recession risks.

The firm forecasts gold reaching $3,700 by year-end before hitting $4,000 by mid-2026, citing concerns over Fed independence and shifts in US reserve policy.

In the short term, Hua Seng Heng Research expects gold prices to fluctuate sharply. After recent sell-offs, a rebound is underway with key resistance at $3,430 an ounce, and support at $3,270.

According to the World Gold Council, Thailand’s total bar and coin investment demand rose 25% year-on-year in the first quarter to 7.4 tonnes, the strongest first quarter since 2019.

“This brings the country’s consumer demand to 9.1 tonnes, up 17% and the highest quarterly consumer growth in Southeast Asia,” said Fan Shaokai, the council’s head of Asia-Pacific (ex-China) and global head of central banks.

“Consumer investment was generally stronger year-on-year among the Asean markets covered in this report. In Thailand, positive price expectations underpinned gold investment, which led bar and coin investment demand to 25% year-on-year growth, although demand declined quarter-on-quarter as the rally encouraged profit-taking.”